Ok, so i have this theory. Probably way off base and 'never gonna happen'.
I was thinking about the xmas tree cycle. If you have a year when trees are in short supply and make really good money, the growers decide it's a good game to be in so they plant up a few more acres. In five years time there's a glut of trees and the price crashes down again. The growers get a bit disheartened so plant a few less, which then pushes the price up. Ok,I can't quote actual numbers to prove this, just an observation after 25 years of selling trees. You get ups and downs which could also be attributed to the weather rather than growers planting habits. So who really knows.

Anyway, the point is...could the same thing be applied to red roses on valentines day. Let's say roses made top money last year. What is a rose grower going to do. Plant less for this year? or is he going to fill every inch of glass and a few more in his bedroom. I don't really know how the system works in Holland. Do the growers have to give an indication of the volumes they will be putting through the auction, or is it a case of 'you'll know on the day'
If you conducted a survey of all the growers and asked them whether they were growing more or less this year, what are they going to say. They're not going to say...yes, we're going to cut double the volume! That in itself would have everyone holding back waiting for the price to crash, and they know it.
I suspect it would be difficult for a lot of growers to double production without all the visible signs of expansion, but what sort of percentage increase across the country would/could have a dramatic effect on the auction price?

When did the price actually peak? was it in the last days? I think it would take a lot of bottle for a grower to hold everything back for the final day and gamble on the auction price. I don't think any bank manager would be very sympathetic it if turned against him. But then again, this business is all about taking risks, even for us little shop owners.

Yes, there is the factor of new demand in eastern Europe and yes there is some big money in those countries but i suspect that the 'big money' is in the hands of a 'select few' otherwise we would not have millions jumping into lorries to get into the UK. Each of these 'select few' only wants so many roses. It's not like shares in Manchester United, where they will buy thousands of them.

Another factor is the trend started by a few florists to 'ban' red roses on valentines day and promote alternatives. Only a few mind you, but I increasingly find myself persuading people to opt for a mixed arrangement rather than the traditional dozen roses. They spend the same money but get a better looking product.

Just my thoughts of the day.